Rolex Secondary Market Cooling: A Deep Dive into the Current Downturn

Rolex Secondary Market: A Gentle, Yet Persistent Decline

Recent discussions have been dominated by the softening of Rolex prices in the secondary market. While not as dramatic as the 2022 crash, the current trend is a steady, gradual decline that has caught the attention of collectors and dealers alike. Let’s break down the numbers and what they mean for the market.

Key Models and Their Price Movements

Here’s a snapshot of how some popular Rolex models have fared over the past few months:

Black Ice Daytona (116506): Dropped from ¥570,000 in February to ¥540,000 in June, and now sits around ¥520,000.
Tiffany Blue Dial Daytona with Rubber Strap: Fell from ¥690,000 in February to ¥660,000 in June, now around ¥620,000.
Green Gold Daytona (126508): Slipped from ¥630,000 in February to ¥620,000 in July, currently near ¥600,000.
White Steel Daytona (126500LN): Decreased from ¥265,000 in February to ¥255,000 in June, now about ¥250,000.
Datejust with Gray Diamond Dial and Jubilee Bracelet: Down from ¥110,000 in February to ¥105,000 in July, now around ¥100,000.
40mm Steel Oyster Perpetual (124300): Declined from ¥190,000 in February to ¥160,000 in July, now just over ¥150,000.
Submariner Date (126610LN): Eased from ¥108,000 in February to ¥105,000 in July, now around ¥100,000.

Overall, prices have seen a broad decline compared to two months ago, and the half-year trend remains downward. However, this is not a crash; it’s more of a typical slow bleed, with monthly fluctuations of a few thousand yuan.

Two Red Flags Indicating a Cooling Market

Beyond the price drops, two other signs suggest the domestic secondary market is entering a colder phase.

1. Shrinking End-User Demand

Previously, a small dealer might move 20-30 Rolex watches a month. Recently, many dealers report July sales at only one-third of April-May levels. And this lost demand isn’t shifting to other brands—it’s simply vanishing. Even at slightly lower prices, Rolex still moves, but the real pain is in the “bundled” watches that dealers are forced to take to get hot models. One dealer, Zhang San, sold 23 Rolexes in April, but only 4 in July, and none so far in August. His bundled inventory, which he took at a 4.5 discount and hoped to sell at 6, is now stuck at 4.5 with no takers. Another dealer invested ¥500,000 in bundles expecting a ¥60,000 profit, but after three months, earned only ¥4,000. The dilemma: take new bundles to keep the relationship with the authorized dealer, or risk losing the channel if the market rebounds?

2. Increasing Supply

The supply of Rolex watches is growing, driven by two factors: slower dealer sell-through (leading to inventory buildup) and a slight increase in distributor releases over the past few months. This combination is creating a precarious situation where the market could see a stampede. For example, a dealer listed a No-Date Submariner at ¥88,000, but within a week, seven or eight similar watches appeared, pushing prices down to ¥85,000, and even ¥84,000 for older warranty cards.

Is It a Good Time to Buy?

Many are wondering if this is the right moment to buy. As the saying goes, “In a rising market, there is no ceiling; today’s high price is tomorrow’s bargain. In a falling market, there is no floor; today’s bargain is tomorrow’s high price.” This wisdom reminds us that timing the market is tricky. For those seeking a specific model for personal enjoyment, the current dip might offer opportunities, but for investors, caution is advised.

At USASHOP Watches, we recommend focusing on the watch itself, not just its investment potential. Always buy from reputable sources and verify authenticity.